Crombie's time is done. But who can replace her?

Someone with charisma, please.

Ontario Liberals march at the Toronto Pride Parade on June 30^th, 2024, before announcing they would no longer attend Capital Pride in Ottawa. | Copyright © Jake Landau, all rights reserved.

I’m not going to beat a dead horse. Bonnie Crombie’s time is up, and I’ve already made the case for how her continuance is untenable. I’m focused on the future situation for the Ontario Liberal Party, including the tenuous fiscal outlook.

The per-vote subsidy will only continue until 2026, and Liberals remain only a few seats above the party status threshold for caucus funding.

I do not believe Premier Ford would face any consequences from the electorate if he decided to change those laws. Indeed, he has already done this before, raising the party status threshold from 8 to 12 to keep the Del Duca Liberals short.

If I were at Liberal HQ, I would be making contingency plans for either of those financial boons to be revoked at Ford’s whim; in the worst case, they need to understand there’s a real possibility he takes away both. I’m sorry if they resent me pointing out this weakness publicly, but Liberal organizers need to understand the reality of their situation.

Neither of those laws have ever been necessary for Ford’s Conservatives, because his party has an egregiously large war-chest as a result of pandering to the wealthy and powerful, while doubling the maximum political contribution limit in Ontario to facilitate big donors.

The per-vote subsidy existed because Ford wanted the Liberals strong enough to undercut the NDP, and he kept the Liberals under party status to keep them too weak to challenge him.

But what happens if Ford decides he doesn’t want the Liberals to be powerful enough to split the vote with the NDP? What happens if Ford believes that his electoral chances are better long-term if there’s only the Tories and the NDP in a two-party dynamic?

He would be gambling that more Liberal voters in Ontario, or in the ridings that he cares about winning, would go Tory over NDP. It would depend on how even the split between right-wing and left-wing Liberals is, and this is an open question.

I don’t want to talk about the situation being grim for the Liberals. I want to talk about how they can move forward, and fix the core problems that they have brazenly ignored for eight years.

With Crombie drawing a $185K annual salary from the Ontario Liberal Party, justified pre-election by her lack of seat, but now egregious with her clear inability to ever win a seat, it is in the party’s financial interest to force Crombie’s resignation at the earliest stage, and ensure this leak is plugged.

And yes, Bonnie Crombie can be forced to resign. The question is whether she resigns soon, or whether she drags out her mandatory leadership review until the end of the year. I would advise Liberal insiders to force her resignation the same way that Chrystia Freeland’s faction recently compelled Trudeau’s resignation as federal leader.

To put it simply, the sooner a leadership contest is held, and a new leader selected, the better the chances for Liberals in the next Ontario election.

Considering Doug Ford’s demonstrated willingness to call early elections, it would be a cataclysmic mistake if the Liberal Party has not selected a new leader by the end of 2025, and then nominated candidates in all high-performing ridings by the Spring of 2026.

All of that is obvious, though. It’s no big revelation to say that the early bird gets the worm! What I really care about, is the kind of person this new Liberal Leader should be.

I don’t have any names in mind, and I won’t involve myself in any leadership race beyond casting a ballot, and informing the public how I ranked it. I’m talking about the ideal Liberal in my mind…and naturally, they’re an idealist!

The impulse for Liberals to “go to the centre” or “go right” or abandon principles on a whim in the face of criticism pains me severely. It is foolhardy. When you do this, you are building your home on a foundation of quicksand, and it will consume you.

Why are we involved in politics? Why should people seek to be elected? We should do this because we are motivated by our fundamental sense of justice, our innate feeling of right and wrong.

Different people will always disagree on those things, but we coexist with each other, and sometimes even persuade each other, by connecting on something even more central than ideology: sincerity.

When a politician takes an insincere stance, when they contradict their principles, or when they demonstrate a lack of principles, voters can sniff it out like a shark smells blood in the water.

How voters feel about a candidate’s policies doesn’t matter nearly as much as the Uncanny Valley reflex triggered by insincere people, the vibe that someone is gross and slimy, even if they’re saying objectively good things.

So, if electoral success is based more on sincerity and vibes than the specific policies you push forward, we have two clear goals:

First, Liberals must pick a charismatic person, someone who does not merely have good vibes, but has such a unique appeal that they redefine the public conversation, and other people seek to mimic their vibes.

But more importantly, Liberals must pick a good person. Liberals must pick someone who is proud of Liberal policies, not these Red Tory cowards resentful that Doug Ford’s job isn’t vacant and that they have to be in the Liberal Party rather than the Conservative Party.

Liberals must pick an idealist, someone who eagerly confronts complex problems with speed and ferocity, and someone who thinks that government should be bigger, because they see government as a way to help people.

I have no interest in any politician who thinks that government should be smaller. If you don’t want the job of running society, then step aside, because there are plenty of us more than happy to do the hard work of helping our neighbours.

I believe if Liberals can find this charismatic idealist, someone who can connect with people and lead them to new ideas, they will find a path back from political armageddon.

But if they don’t change? If they keep sailing their boat without a rudder? The storm will wash them away.