Nate Erskine-Smith says goodbye to his constituents, and hints at what's next
A push for his preferred successor, and a vague gesture at his own future.
For the sake of disclosure, as I’ve mentioned in previous columns about Nate Erskine-Smith, I helped Nate’s 2023 run for Ontario Liberal leader, back when I still worked in political organizing. I did not involve myself in his aborted 2026 leadership run or his Scarborough Southwest by-election run, as I have fully left all political work to pursue journalistic work instead, but obviously many of these people are friends of mine, and thus I naturally have some bias that I want to make sure is disclosed prominently.
As Nate Erskine-Smith confirmed last night at his goodbye party, after he vacates his Federal seat as the MP for Beaches—East York, he will not be pursuing the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party, or seeking any provincial seat as an MPP. As such, this “goodbye” is not merely one from Federal Liberal politics, but Ontario Liberal politics as well.
In that regard, while the vast majority of those attending were Nate’s allies and friends from over a decade of holding public office, I also noted a few rivals and obstacles from both the Federal and Ontario Liberals, who sought to block his path at every turn. Perhaps they thought they were paying respect, or perhaps they wanted to make sure he was truly leaving, but they notably kept to their own corner, away from the central masses.
Aside from those strictly in the Nate Erskine-Smith camp, there were also a handful of New Leaf Liberals who didn’t necessarily back Nate, but appreciated his willingness to critique the Ontario Liberal establishment. In that same regard, the only contender for the current Ontario Liberal leadership race to attend was Eric Lombardi, who may be notably more right-wing than I am, but shares a fundamental view that the establishment’s politics is flawed and must change.
Naturally, the mood at the event, held at a brewery in East York, was bittersweet. Many people were upset about the way things played out for Nate, with accusations of malicious behaviour by the Ontario Liberal establishment described in greater detail in this previous column of mine. There has certainly been a pall cast over the idea of progressives engaging with the Ontario Liberal Party to any degree.
But there was also some hope for the future of Nate’s political movement. In 2024, Nate Erskine-Smith first announced he was stepping down, and threw his support behind his preferred successor, Tanveer Shahnawaz, the long-time manager of Nate’s constituency office in Beaches—East York. Of course, we all remember that Nate was convinced to stay to become Trudeau’s final Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities.
As Nate described last night, he cleared that move into Trudeau’s Cabinet with Tanveer when it happened, since he had already publicly endorsed the latter as his successor. Now, Tanveer’s patience and understanding has been rewarded; Nate, leaving for real this time, has once again endorsed Tanveer as his successor, and Tanveer’s team has launched a website for him, with a secret basket ball minigame that the web developer was really excited to show off to me at yesterday’s party.
Of course, it’s not as easy as Nate simply picking his own successor, nor should it be. The Liberal Party of Canada is supposed to hold open nomination contests, so that the Liberal members of the riding can pick the person they think is the best. Prime Minister Carney, on the other hand, has established a tendency of making undemocratic closed appointments to nominate Liberal candidates, exemplified by recent Toronto by-elections in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest.
This obviously raises some concern as to whether Tanveer or his two declared opponents, Claire Seaborn and Summer Nudel, will even get the chance to run in an open contest. Indeed, some well-connected Federal Liberals at last night’s party told me they believe the Prime Minister will make an appointment here as well. Yet Nate, while speaking on stage, insisted that he has told Prime Minister Carney that he expects an open and democratic nomination contest, and Nate creating this public pressure will make it harder for the Prime Minister to get away with an appointment.
As for Nate’s own future, though? Apparently, he’s not actually sure yet. The Toronto Star has reported that he met with Mayor Chow earlier this month to consider running for Toronto City Council, where he would presumably try and take Brad Bradford’s ward as the latter vacates it to challenge for the mayoralty. If that is Nate’s plan, he’s not ready to commit to it publicly. He may very well choose to shepherd a new generation of political candidates in his image, and his push for Tanveer is a hint that this will likely remain a large priority for him.
In any case, the current phase of Nate Erskine-Smith’s career is over. Only time will reveal what comes next for him and his faction. I look forward to seeing what happens.