For a brief moment, it appeared like Prime Minister Mark Carney was about to strike a trade deal with the Trump regime after all. It was just Wednesday when he was briefing his cabinet and all the Premiers on the “tentative” deal that had been reached. Immediately, there were concerns over the fact that it would cement Canada removing all tariffs, while the United States kept permanent 25% tariffs, only cutting the threatened 50% tariffs by half.
For context, even a 15% tariff on Canada’s automotive industry would crush the sector and siphon virtually all the business from customers towards factories based in the United States. While Keystone XL would have benefited the oil and gas industry—at the obvious expense of making climate change even worse—it does appear that negotiations prioritized Alberta’s fixation on fossil fuels over the industries of interest to other provinces.
Nonetheless, on Wednesday, Carney was asking Premiers to be prepared to restore alcohol produced in the United States to stores in their provinces. For foreign audiences reading this column, and Canadians who need a refresher on civics, he has to ask because according to the constitutional division of powers, provinces control the rules for alcohol distribution, and even the age at which consumption is legal can vary from one to another. And at least one Premier, Christine Fréchette of Québec, said explicitly that the proposal Carney put before her did not contain enough details to convince her that she should restore Yankee alcohol to the shelves of the SAQ.
The tentative deal was already making people uneasy, in a situation where Canadians, when polled, are clear that we have been conceding too much already, and that we have little appetite to surrender even more. There were valid questions about whether we were pursuing a deal merely for the sake of pursuing a deal, even if the deal was a lopsided and bad one.
Yet what appeared to push things over the edge was the unmitigated greed and arrogance of the Trump administration. At the final hour, they unilaterally imposed new terms, demanding a veto over our ability to make trade agreements with other countries, and that we reduce the presence of French in media and on product labels. Both of these are brazen attacks on the sovereignty and identity of the Canadian people, and the latter in particular is violently offensive to Québec and other francophone communities in our nation.
At this point, Prime Minister Carney appeared to hit his limit, and shortly before midnight last night, he announced that he was suspending negotiations, and preparing to retaliate against the United States with “dollar-for-dollar” tariffs. Both politicians and industry have rallied around this response, and this stance appears to be much more in line with the “elbows up” philosophy that Carney campaigned for election on last April.
There are many measures that are now open for consideration in this trade war, beyond just tariffs. We can cut off electricity and fossil fuels in the winter to freeze the Yankees, and we can cut off potash, which they heavily rely on Saskatchewan’s supply for to fertilize their crops, causing them to starve. Canadians have hardened our hearts, and we are ready to assert our sovereignty.
With that said, the Prime Minister has a couple concessions to undo. We rolled back the digital services tax and the requirement for streamers to fund CanCon on the basis that it would remove “trade irritants”, only for the Trump regime to tell us we would get no credit for this. These were beneficial policies to generate government revenue and promote Canadian industry and culture, and now that a trade deal is clearly out of the picture, it is time to restore these policies, and send the message that we decide our laws, not the Yankees.
In addition, this is not the time for Carney to fall back on his trademark right-wing fiscal austerity. The looming recession which will trigger as a result of the economic downturn will require stimulus in order to keep the engine of industry running, and keep those who lose their jobs from falling into homelessness and starving to death. Extensive and universal fiscal supports will be required for individuals and families along socialist lines; it cannot be gate kept by corporations.
The way in which Prime Minister Carney handles this economic crisis will define his legacy, and the path of our country. Elbows up, Canada; this one’s going to be bumpy.